Cut-line analytics
Monte Carlo model make-cut probability for each player, next to the executable YES bid/ask on Kalshi and the expected value per contract net of exchange fees. During tournament rounds this table refreshes automatically.
Sample data shown — the live model feed is not connected in this environment. Column semantics and record-keeping behavior are final.
| Player | Model make-cut probability | Market YES price | Model − market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Player A | 84.0% | 78¢ | +6.0 pts |
| Player B | 62.0% | 71¢ | -9.0 pts |
| Player C | 55.0% | 49¢ | +6.0 pts |
| Player D | 31.0% | 38¢ | -7.0 pts |
| Player E | 12.0% | — | — |
Weekly model report
Pre-tournament probabilities and the post-tournament calibration recap, in one email per tournament week.