Every call we’ve ever published, unedited.
Each published probability is written to an append-only, SHA-256-hash-chained ledger at publication time — timestamp, market, model probability, contract price, model version. No retroactive edits, ever.
Published calls
27
every line hash-chained
Settled
27
0 open
Brier score
0.242
market-implied: 0.228
Calibration slope
7 bins
see FIG. 2
FIG. 2 — CALIBRATION, ALL SETTLED CALLS (n = 27)
Dot size ∝ number of calls in bin. Points on the dashed diagonal are perfectly calibrated.
HOW THIS LEDGER WORKS
Each line commits to the entire history before it through a SHA-256 hash chain — a retroactive edit changes every subsequent chain head, so the record is verifiable by anyone, not merely trusted. Each row carries the MLflow model version that produced it, and the contract price at the moment of publication. Tournaments with no qualifying analysis still get a “no-call” line.
If a model version fails a validation gate, its outputs are never published — there is no partial credit.
PUBLISHED (UTC)MARKETPLAYERMODEL PPRICEMODELOUTCOME
2026-07-16 05:30:34make cut — espn:401811957Keita Nakajima57.4%50¢skill-mc-v0.3NO ✗
2026-07-16 05:20:34make cut — espn:401811957Brian Harman54.8%62¢skill-mc-v0.3NO ✗
2026-07-16 05:10:33make cut — espn:401811957Lucas Herbert55.6%48¢skill-mc-v0.3YES ✓
2026-07-16 05:00:34make cut — espn:401811957Sam Burns75.1%68¢skill-mc-v0.3YES ✓
2026-07-16 05:00:34make cut — espn:401811957Matthew Jordan40.9%48¢skill-mc-v0.3NO ✓
2026-07-16 02:59:57make cut — espn:401811957Wyndham Clark75.2%68¢skill-mc-v0.3NO ✗
2026-07-16 02:59:57make cut — espn:401811957Jason Day63.3%56¢skill-mc-v0.3NO ✗
2026-07-16 02:59:57make cut — espn:401811957Shane Lowry63.6%71¢skill-mc-v0.3YES ✓
2026-07-16 02:59:57make cut — espn:401811957Austen Truslow17.4%25¢skill-mc-v0.3NO ✓
2026-07-16 02:59:57make cut — espn:401811957Laurie Canter42.1%50¢skill-mc-v0.3YES ✗
2026-07-16 02:59:57make cut — espn:401811957Travis Smyth20.1%28¢skill-mc-v0.3NO ✓
2026-07-16 02:59:57make cut — espn:401811957Matthew Baldwin20.3%29¢skill-mc-v0.3NO ✓
2026-07-16 02:59:57make cut — espn:401811957Shaun Norris50.0%41¢skill-mc-v0.3YES ✗
2026-07-16 02:59:57make cut — espn:401811957Caleb Surratt39.2%30¢skill-mc-v0.3NO ✓
2026-07-16 02:59:57make cut — espn:401811957Scott Vincent58.2%49¢skill-mc-v0.3NO ✗
2026-07-16 02:59:57make cut — espn:401811957Corey Conners52.7%62¢skill-mc-v0.3YES ✓
2026-07-16 02:59:57make cut — espn:401811957Marcus Plunkett22.5%14¢skill-mc-v0.3YES ✗
2026-07-16 02:59:57make cut — espn:401811957David Puig61.9%52¢skill-mc-v0.3NO ✗
2026-07-16 02:59:57make cut — espn:401811957Stewart Cink38.0%48¢skill-mc-v0.3NO ✓
2026-07-16 02:59:57make cut — espn:401811957Jake Knapp62.1%52¢skill-mc-v0.3NO ✗
2026-07-16 02:59:57make cut — espn:401811957Padraig Harrington25.7%36¢skill-mc-v0.3NO ✓
2026-07-16 02:59:57make cut — espn:401811957Peter Uihlein34.8%24¢skill-mc-v0.3YES ✗
2026-07-16 02:59:57make cut — espn:401811957Ryutaro Nagano38.8%27¢skill-mc-v0.3NO ✓
2026-07-16 02:59:57make cut — espn:401811957Bryson DeChambeau72.2%60¢skill-mc-v0.3YES ✓
2026-07-16 02:59:57make cut — espn:401811957James Nicholas40.3%28¢skill-mc-v0.3NO ✓
2026-07-16 02:59:57make cut — espn:401811957Alistair Docherty51.3%33¢skill-mc-v0.3NO ✗
2026-07-16 02:59:57make cut — espn:401811957Ren Yonezawa56.5%34¢skill-mc-v0.3NO ✗
The full ledger is queryable and exportable — see docs/verifying-the-ledger.md for independent verification.