Feed stalled. The last publish was 6 h ago (2026-10-25 00:55:05 UTC), which is beyond the publishing cadence — the pipeline host has stopped pushing. Nothing below is current; no numbers are shown rather than stale ones presented as live.
Publishing has stopped. No current model output to show.
The 10,000-path field simulation reprices every make-cut contract as scores post. It has nothing to price right now, and says so rather than showing a stand-in.
Projected cut
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no field to cut
Live edges flagged
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≥ 5.0-point threshold
Simulations
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feed published 6 h ago
Model skill-mc-v0.3
Gated ✓
DSR 1.000 · PBO 0.000 · Z −0.66
PLAYERTHRU · TOTMODEL P(CUT)KALSHI YESEDGEDISPERSIONNOTE
Sorted by absolute edge. Click a row to inspect its finish dispersion. Prices from Kalshi (covers Robinhood-routed markets).
FIG. 1 — FINISH DISPERSION, — (10,000 PATHS)
NOWPROJECTED CUT —FINISH R2
Dashed line: projected cut (—). —% of the selected player’s simulated paths finish on the right side of it.
MODEL SKILL-MC-V0.3 — VALIDATION
Deflated Sharpe1.000 ✓
Prob. of backtest overfit0.000 ✓
Spiegelhalter Z−0.66 ✓
Brier — model / market0.2255 / 0.2471
21,304 forecasts · 150 tournaments, walk-forward. Every published probability is written to an append-only record. Nothing is edited after the fact. See the track record →