The quant desk for golf prediction markets

golf-quant runs a Monte Carlo field simulation over every PGA Tour event and compares model probabilities against live contract prices on Kalshi — including the golf markets Robinhood routes there. Every published probability is timestamped and recorded immutably, so the track record is verifiable, not curated.

Transparent

Every model probability is published to an append-only record with the contract price at publication and the exact model version.

Validated

No model ships without passing statistical validation gates — deflated Sharpe ratio, probability of backtest overfitting, and out-of-sample performance thresholds.

Contract-native

Built for event contracts — make/miss cut, 3-ball, head-to-head, and winner markets — not sportsbook odds translated after the fact.