The Open
Field of 156 — cut: top 70 and ties after 36 holes. Model skill-mc-v0.3, updated Fri, 17 Jul 2026 16:10:04 GMT.
Field
156
players entered
Cut rule
top 70
and ties after 36 holes
Model skill-mc-v0.3
Gated ✓
publishing to the ledger
| Player | Model make-cut probability | YES bid / ask | EV (YES, net of fees) | EV (NO, net of fees) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Fitzpatrick | 79.5% | 0¢ / 1¢ | +$0.77 | −$0.79 |
| Cameron John | 24.4% | 99¢ / 100¢ | −$0.76 | +$0.74 |
| Wyndham Clark | 74.9% | 0¢ / 1¢ | +$0.73 | −$0.75 |
| Joaquín Niemann | 69.6% | 0¢ / 1¢ | +$0.68 | −$0.70 |
| Tom Kim | 64.8% | 0¢ / 1¢ | +$0.63 | −$0.65 |
| Keith Mitchell | 62.7% | 0¢ / 1¢ | +$0.61 | −$0.63 |
| Daniel Brown | 39.3% | 99¢ / 100¢ | −$0.61 | +$0.59 |
| Marcus Plunkett | 22.4% | 82¢ / 98¢ | −$0.77 | +$0.58 |
| Laurie Canter | 41.7% | 99¢ / 100¢ | −$0.58 | +$0.56 |
| Keita Nakajima | 56.6% | 0¢ / 1¢ | +$0.55 | −$0.57 |
| Ren Yonezawa | 56.2% | 0¢ / 1¢ | +$0.54 | −$0.56 |
| Andy Sullivan | 40.8% | 95¢ / 99¢ | −$0.59 | +$0.53 |
| Gary Woodland | 54.5% | 0¢ / 1¢ | +$0.52 | −$0.54 |
| Jesper Svensson | 46.3% | 99¢ / 100¢ | −$0.54 | +$0.52 |
| Harry Hall | 53.5% | 0¢ / 1¢ | +$0.52 | −$0.54 |
| Sepp Straka | 47.3% | 99¢ / 100¢ | −$0.53 | +$0.51 |
| Marco Penge | 47.4% | 99¢ / 100¢ | −$0.53 | +$0.51 |
| Max Greyserman | 51.8% | 0¢ / 1¢ | +$0.50 | −$0.52 |
| John Parry | 48.5% | 99¢ / 100¢ | −$0.52 | +$0.49 |
| Michael Kim | 51.4% | 0¢ / 1¢ | +$0.49 | −$0.51 |
| Alistair Docherty | 51.1% | 0¢ / 1¢ | +$0.49 | −$0.51 |
| Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen | 49.8% | 99¢ / 100¢ | −$0.50 | +$0.48 |
| Shaun Norris | 49.8% | 99¢ / 100¢ | −$0.50 | +$0.48 |
| Daniel Berger | 49.9% | 0¢ / 1¢ | +$0.48 | −$0.50 |
| Michael Brennan | 50.6% | 99¢ / 100¢ | −$0.49 | +$0.47 |
| Sungjae Im | 46.5% | 94¢ / 100¢ | −$0.53 | +$0.46 |
| Casey Jarvis | 52.3% | 99¢ / 100¢ | −$0.48 | +$0.46 |
| Corey Conners | 52.8% | 99¢ / 100¢ | −$0.47 | +$0.45 |
| Sahith Theegala | 53.1% | 99¢ / 100¢ | −$0.47 | +$0.45 |
| Haotong Li | 46.3% | 0¢ / 1¢ | +$0.44 | −$0.46 |
| Jackson Suber | 54.6% | 99¢ / 100¢ | −$0.45 | +$0.43 |
| Pierceson Coody | 55.0% | 99¢ / 100¢ | −$0.45 | +$0.43 |
| Lucas Herbert | 55.5% | 99¢ / 100¢ | −$0.45 | +$0.43 |
| Francesco Laporta | 44.0% | 0¢ / 1¢ | +$0.42 | −$0.44 |
| Bud Cauley | 56.5% | 99¢ / 100¢ | −$0.44 | +$0.42 |
| Dan Bradbury | 43.5% | 0¢ / 1¢ | +$0.41 | −$0.43 |
| Adam Scott | 57.8% | 99¢ / 100¢ | −$0.42 | +$0.40 |
| Matt Wallace | 58.1% | 99¢ / 100¢ | −$0.42 | +$0.40 |
| Thomas Detry | 58.3% | 99¢ / 100¢ | −$0.42 | +$0.40 |
| Eric Cole | 58.4% | 99¢ / 100¢ | −$0.42 | +$0.40 |
| Matthew Jordan | 41.5% | 0¢ / 1¢ | +$0.40 | −$0.41 |
| Joe Dean | 40.3% | 0¢ / 1¢ | +$0.38 | −$0.40 |
| Kristoffer Reitan | 60.2% | 99¢ / 100¢ | −$0.40 | +$0.38 |
| Jacob Bridgeman | 60.2% | 99¢ / 100¢ | −$0.40 | +$0.38 |
| Adrien Saddier | 39.4% | 0¢ / 1¢ | +$0.37 | −$0.39 |
| Martin Couvra | 39.4% | 0¢ / 1¢ | +$0.37 | −$0.39 |
| Scott Vincent | 58.5% | 0¢ / 20¢ | +$0.36 | −$0.58 |
| Francesco Molinari | 41.4% | 78¢ / 99¢ | −$0.59 | +$0.35 |
| Kurt Kitayama | 63.4% | 99¢ / 100¢ | −$0.37 | +$0.35 |
| Peter Uihlein | 35.8% | 72¢ / 97¢ | −$0.62 | +$0.34 |
| Shane Lowry | 63.9% | 99¢ / 100¢ | −$0.36 | +$0.34 |
| Michael Hollick | 35.5% | 0¢ / 1¢ | +$0.34 | −$0.36 |
| Alex Fitzpatrick | 65.7% | 99¢ / 100¢ | −$0.34 | +$0.32 |
| Patrick Reed | 66.0% | 99¢ / 100¢ | −$0.34 | +$0.32 |
| Sam Bairstow | 33.6% | 0¢ / 1¢ | +$0.32 | −$0.34 |
| Naoyuki Kataoka | 23.1% | 55¢ / 89¢ | −$0.67 | +$0.30 |
| J.J. Spaun | 68.1% | 99¢ / 100¢ | −$0.32 | +$0.30 |
| Aaron Rai | 61.4% | 0¢ / 30¢ | +$0.29 | −$0.61 |
| Robert MacIntyre | 69.6% | 99¢ / 100¢ | −$0.30 | +$0.28 |
| Patrick Cantlay | 69.9% | 99¢ / 100¢ | −$0.30 | +$0.28 |
| Xander Schauffele | 70.0% | 99¢ / 100¢ | −$0.30 | +$0.28 |
| Ludvig Åberg | 70.8% | 99¢ / 100¢ | −$0.29 | +$0.27 |
| Chris Gotterup | 71.0% | 99¢ / 100¢ | −$0.29 | +$0.27 |
| Cameron Young | 71.1% | 99¢ / 100¢ | −$0.29 | +$0.27 |
| Collin Morikawa | 73.8% | 99¢ / 100¢ | −$0.26 | +$0.24 |
| Padraig Harrington | 26.1% | 0¢ / 1¢ | +$0.24 | −$0.26 |
| Sam Burns | 74.8% | 99¢ / 100¢ | −$0.25 | +$0.23 |
| Aldrich Potgieter | 45.9% | 69¢ / 95¢ | −$0.50 | +$0.21 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 77.1% | 97¢ / 98¢ | −$0.22 | +$0.19 |
| Matthew Baldwin | 20.6% | 0¢ / 1¢ | +$0.19 | −$0.21 |
| Rory McIlroy | 80.4% | 99¢ / 100¢ | −$0.20 | +$0.18 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | 72.4% | 91¢ / 94¢ | −$0.23 | +$0.18 |
| J.T. Poston | 57.2% | 0¢ / 38¢ | +$0.17 | −$0.57 |
| Austen Truslow | 18.3% | 0¢ / 1¢ | +$0.16 | −$0.18 |
| Cameron Smith | 55.4% | 0¢ / 38¢ | +$0.15 | −$0.55 |
| Alex Smalley | 58.5% | 75¢ / 99¢ | −$0.42 | +$0.15 |
| Brooks Koepka | 56.5% | 73¢ / 92¢ | −$0.36 | +$0.14 |
| Ryo Hisatsune | 53.0% | 69¢ / 100¢ | −$0.47 | +$0.14 |
| Brian Harman | 54.5% | 2¢ / 39¢ | +$0.14 | −$0.54 |
| Justin Rose | 64.9% | 7¢ / 50¢ | +$0.13 | −$0.59 |
| Jason Day | 63.1% | 2¢ / 49¢ | +$0.12 | −$0.62 |
| Lev Grinberg | 13.5% | 0¢ / 1¢ | +$0.11 | −$0.13 |
| Billy Horschel | 43.4% | 0¢ / 30¢ | +$0.11 | −$0.43 |
| Sami Välimäki | 49.5% | 0¢ / 37¢ | +$0.11 | −$0.50 |
| Daniel Hillier | 50.4% | 0¢ / 38¢ | +$0.10 | −$0.50 |
| Tiger Christensen | 12.1% | 0¢ / 1¢ | +$0.10 | −$0.12 |
| Bernd Wiesberger | 49.2% | 0¢ / 38¢ | +$0.09 | −$0.49 |
| Jordan Spieth | 54.4% | 44¢ / 48¢ | +$0.04 | −$0.12 |
| Scottie Scheffler | 88.9% | 94¢ / 100¢ | −$0.11 | +$0.04 |
| Viktor Hovland | 70.9% | 7¢ / 66¢ | +$0.03 | −$0.65 |
| Sam Stevens | 48.6% | 53¢ / 91¢ | −$0.43 | +$0.02 |
| Jon Rahm | 82.1% | 83¢ / 96¢ | −$0.15 | −$0.00 |
| Russell Henley | 71.3% | 72¢ / 98¢ | −$0.28 | −$0.01 |
| Caleb Surratt | 39.5% | 1¢ / 41¢ | −$0.04 | −$0.40 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 60.6% | 59¢ / 80¢ | −$0.21 | −$0.04 |
| Henrik Stenson | 36.1% | 2¢ / 38¢ | −$0.04 | −$0.35 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | 70.4% | 68¢ / 87¢ | −$0.18 | −$0.04 |
| Michael Thorbjornsen | 58.6% | 56¢ / 98¢ | −$0.40 | −$0.05 |
| Mason Howell | 10.1% | 3¢ / 38¢ | −$0.30 | −$0.08 |
| Akshay Bhatia | 65.2% | 10¢ / 75¢ | −$0.12 | −$0.56 |
| Justin Thomas | 66.6% | 2¢ / 79¢ | −$0.14 | −$0.66 |
| Ryutaro Nagano | 38.8% | 2¢ / 52¢ | −$0.15 | −$0.38 |
| Min Woo Lee | 62.9% | 2¢ / 78¢ | −$0.17 | −$0.62 |
| Travis Smyth | 20.8% | 3¢ / 88¢ | −$0.68 | −$0.19 |
| Ben Griffin | 69.9% | 52¢ / 91¢ | −$0.22 | −$0.20 |
| Kazuma Kobori | 38.2% | 20¢ / 93¢ | −$0.56 | −$0.20 |
| David Puig | 62.0% | 1¢ / 81¢ | −$0.21 | −$0.62 |
| Matthew Southgate | 22.1% | 2¢ / 98¢ | −$0.77 | −$0.21 |
| Si Woo Kim | 73.4% | 25¢ / 94¢ | −$0.22 | −$0.50 |
| Jeong-Woo Ham | 23.1% | 0¢ / 98¢ | −$0.76 | −$0.23 |
| Maverick McNealy | 66.3% | 15¢ / 89¢ | −$0.24 | −$0.52 |
| Frederic LaCroix | 34.0% | 2¢ / 58¢ | −$0.26 | −$0.33 |
| Kazuki Higa | 34.9% | 7¢ / 98¢ | −$0.64 | −$0.29 |
| Joakim Lagergren | 33.0% | 2¢ / 98¢ | −$0.66 | −$0.32 |
| Hennie Du Plessis | 48.7% | 18¢ / 90¢ | −$0.42 | −$0.33 |
| MJ Daffue | 34.2% | 2¢ / 98¢ | −$0.65 | −$0.33 |
| Keegan Bradley | 62.3% | 2¢ / 96¢ | −$0.35 | −$0.61 |
| Ryan Gerard | 63.1% | 2¢ / 98¢ | −$0.36 | −$0.62 |
| Harris English | 63.5% | 1¢ / 99¢ | −$0.36 | −$0.64 |
| Max Homa | 55.5% | 3¢ / 91¢ | −$0.37 | −$0.53 |
| Tom McKibbin | 51.6% | 2¢ / 88¢ | −$0.37 | −$0.51 |
| Rickie Fowler | 59.5% | 23¢ / 96¢ | −$0.37 | −$0.39 |
| Stewart Cink | 37.8% | 0¢ / 82¢ | −$0.46 | −$0.38 |
| Jake Knapp | 61.6% | 2¢ / 99¢ | −$0.38 | −$0.61 |
| Kota Kaneko | 51.6% | 1¢ / 89¢ | −$0.38 | −$0.52 |
| Victor Perez | 60.1% | 2¢ / 99¢ | −$0.40 | −$0.59 |
| Alex Noren | 58.0% | 2¢ / 98¢ | −$0.41 | −$0.57 |
| Nick Taylor | 57.4% | 3¢ / 98¢ | −$0.42 | −$0.55 |
| Josele Ballester | 43.3% | 2¢ / 98¢ | −$0.56 | −$0.42 |
| Andrew Novak | 46.3% | 0¢ / 89¢ | −$0.44 | −$0.46 |
| Antoine Rozner | 46.1% | 3¢ / 98¢ | −$0.53 | −$0.44 |
| Ryan Fox | 55.2% | 3¢ / 99¢ | −$0.45 | −$0.53 |
13 players with limited scoring history (model estimates are prior-dominated and unreliable — shown for completeness, excluded from analysis)
| Player | Model make-cut probability | YES bid / ask | EV (YES, net of fees) | EV (NO, net of fees) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Wiedemeyer | 37.6% | 0¢ / 1¢ | +$0.36 | −$0.38 |
| Stuart Grehan | 25.0% | 0¢ / 1¢ | +$0.23 | −$0.25 |
| Jiho Yang | 24.1% | 0¢ / 1¢ | +$0.22 | −$0.24 |
| David Howard | 24.3% | 1¢ / 3¢ | +$0.20 | −$0.24 |
| Jack Buchanan | 22.2% | 0¢ / 1¢ | +$0.20 | −$0.22 |
| Darren Clarke | 11.4% | 0¢ / 1¢ | +$0.09 | −$0.11 |
| Nevill Ruiter | 8.9% | 0¢ / 1¢ | +$0.07 | −$0.09 |
| Mateo Pulcini | 3.2% | 0¢ / 1¢ | +$0.01 | −$0.03 |
| Fifa Laopakdee | 2.7% | 0¢ / 1¢ | +$0.01 | −$0.03 |
| David Duval | 2.3% | 0¢ / 1¢ | +$0.00 | −$0.02 |
| Thomas Sloman | 5.5% | 3¢ / 74¢ | −$0.71 | −$0.03 |
| Jack McDonald | 19.0% | 2¢ / 54¢ | −$0.37 | −$0.18 |
| Alejandro de Castro Piera | 24.5% | 1¢ / 98¢ | −$0.74 | −$0.25 |